Forecast market traders are betting big on a landslide Liberal victory as Canadians prepare for election

According to political betting data, Mark Carney has a 78% chance of becoming Canada's next prime minister, while Pierre Poilievre has a 22% chance.

Sam Reynolds | Edited by Aoyon Ashraf Updated April 28, 2025, 8:58 PM Published April 28, 2025, 1:34 AM

What is important to know:

• According to political betting tips, Mark Carney has a 78% chance of becoming Canada's next prime minister, while Pierre Poilievre has a 22% chance.
• Critics argue that prediction markets like Polymarket can be subject to manipulation, but there is no compelling evidence to support these claims.
• The Canadian Election Contract on Polymarket has the highest open interest, indicating high market activity.

Political bettors on Polymarket and other platforms are focusing on Canada ahead of the country's upcoming elections.

With the country's 45th election, a contract allowing players to guess who will be Canada's next prime minister gives the Liberal Party's Mark Carney a 78% chance and the Conservative Party's Pierre Poilievre a 22%.

By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy .

Political betting sites are showing some skepticism about Carney's chances of winning compared to the polls, but both estimates are heading in the same direction. Public broadcaster CBC's polling aggregator puts Carney's chances at 89%.

Myriad Markets, another forecasting platform, provides Carney with the same odds as Polymarket.