Bitcoin's Weekend Gain Creates Another CME Gap, Pointing to Lower Potential
Historical data shows that the gap in the $84,000-$85,000 range is likely to be closed.
James Van Straten | Edited by Sheldon Rebeck on March 24, 2025, 12:16 UTC
Key points:
- The $1,000 gap came when CME bitcoin futures opened at $85,160 on Monday, up from Friday's close of $84,190.
- Bitcoin has historically closed most of the CME gaps, hinting at a potential retest of the $84,000-$85,000 range.
Spot Bitcoin (BTC) surged over the weekend, hitting a high of $87,800 on Monday, creating a new gap between Friday's CME futures close and the start of the new week.
Futures closed at $84,190 late last week and opened about $1,000 higher at $85,160. This sets the stage for the downside as Bitcoin tends to fill such gaps in CME futures.
As of mid-March, it had closed the last gap that had opened during the November rally following President Donald Trump's election victory. That gap was completely closed when Bitcoin dropped to $76,700 in mid-March.
Gaps occur because spot bitcoin trading occurs around the clock, while CME futures only operate 23 hours a day, Sunday through Friday. When there is significant price movement outside of CME trading hours, a gap occurs between the previous day's close and the next day's open.
Historically, Bitcoin has often returned to close such gaps. Based on this trend, there is a high probability that Bitcoin could return to the $84,000-$85,000 range in the near future.
