Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are under pressure below a key technical level, which could indicate further declines in BTC prices.
Short-term Bitcoin holders have sold off more than 100,000 BTC since February.
James Van Straten | Edited by Sheldon Rebeck Updated Mar 13, 2025 17:13 UTC Published Mar 13, 2025 16:47 UTC
Key points:
- Short-term Bitcoin holders have sold off more than 100,000 BTC since February, sending the price down 30% from its all-time high.
- The S&P 500 remains more than 200 points below its 200-day moving average, and historical data points to further declines if the index fails to reclaim that level.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to struggle on Thursday as it struggles to stay above $80,000. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is down 3% on the day so far. It has fallen 13% in the first quarter and is about 30% below its all-time high from January.
According to Glassnode, short-term holders are investors who have held bitcoin for less than 155 days and are generally viewed as speculators who tend to enter the market during price peaks or periods of market euphoria. Since February, they have sold more than 100,000 BTC (about $8 billion at current prices), indicating they are looking to minimize losses (or lock in profits) before prices fall further.
The price decline has pushed Bitcoin below its 200-day moving average of $86,300. This metric is an important indicator of long-term market trends, and BTC is not the only risk investment to fall below it.
U.S. stocks, as reflected in the S&P 500 index, have also lost ground. The index is currently trading at around 5,537, while the 200-day moving average is 5,738.
When the S&P 500 has difficulty recovering from the 200-DMA, historical data suggests that prices may be lower in the near future, according to Joe Carlasare, a commercial lawyer and Bitcoin proponent.
“The S&P 500 continues to struggle to get back to the 200-day level,” he wrote in X. “If we can’t get a significant rally above that level soon, it makes sense to expect lower prices. Look at the history of what happens when we fall below the 200-day level.”
