Bitcoin Traders Prepare for 'May Sell and Go' as Seasonality Fosters Bearish Sentiment
Could a secular seasonal market pattern foretell further losses? Bitcoin’s five-year performance points to a yes.
Author: Shaurya Malwa | Edited by: Parikshit Mishra Updated: May 2, 2025 5:44 PM Published: May 2, 2025 12:05 PM
What is important to know:
- Bitcoin's recent rally has traders hopeful of reaching $100,000, but historical data calls for caution ahead of May.
- The saying “Sell in May and walk away” illustrates the seasonal downward trend in market performance from May to October.
- Historical data suggests that Bitcoin often follows the same seasonal patterns as stocks, and volatility and pullbacks can be expected in the coming months.
Bitcoin's (BTC) breakout earlier this week has traders hoping for $100,000 in the coming days. However, that optimism may be short-lived as May's seasonality approaches.
“Historically, the next few months are weak for financial markets as many investors follow the adage ‘sell in May and walk away,’” Jeff May, chief operating officer of BTSE, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.
“However, markets have lagged significantly in recent months, but this year could be a different story as Bitcoin has reached $97,000 and other growth stocks have returned in recent weeks. Weak US GDP data last week points to some risk as another negative GDP report next quarter would mean a recession, but rate cuts could also lead to a recovery,” May added.
The saying “Sell in May and go away” is a long-standing seasonal tradition in traditional financial markets.
It suggests that investors should sell their holdings in early May and return to the market around November, as stock markets are considered to underperform in the summer due to lower trading volumes, reduced institutional activity and historical performance data.
The phrase dates back to the early days of the London Stock Exchange and originally meant “Sell in May and go away, come back on St Leger's Day”, referring to the mid-September race.
What the data says
Historically, U.S. stock markets perform weaker from May to October than from November to April, making this strategy a seasonal rule for some investors.
Bitcoin also exhibits recurring seasonal patterns that often depend on macroeconomic cycles, institutional flows, and retail trader sentiment. Data from CoinGlass shows that the asset’s performance in May has been negative or weak recently.
In 2021, BTC fell 35%, making it one of the worst months of the year. In 2022, May was also negative, with a 15% drop amid the Luna crash. In 2023, BTC has fluctuated between zero and slightly positive, reflecting muted volatility. BTC gained 11% in May last year and ended May 2019 with a 52% gain, an outstanding result for any month since 2018, when crypto markets are considered to have matured after that year’s altcoin cycle.
The data show that red months in May are often followed by even bigger declines in June, with four of the last five months of June ending in red
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