Institutional demand is creating a new, sustainable bull market.
Recent data shows that the current Bitcoin (BTC) bull market differs from previous ones in its structure and sources of growth. While retail traders and excessive leverage dominated in 2021, institutional capital is now playing a leading role. Researchers believe this is supported by three key indicators, indicating a transition to a more sustainable and rational phase.
The first signal is the exponential growth of open interest (OI) on the regulated CME market. In 2021, the volume of positions was approximately $5 billion, but by 2025, it exceeded $20 billion. This figure reflects an “institutional tsunami”: large funds and financial institutions are actively entering the market, creating long-term liquidity and changing its dynamics.
The second factor is the ratio of spot buying to derivatives trading. During the previous cycle, BTC's price rose amid declining results, indicating the speculative nature of the bull run. Recently, the trend has reversed: since 2023, the share of actual spot buying has steadily increased, and the price increase has been accompanied by a steady influx of capital through ETFs and arbitrage strategies that do not involve excessive risk.
The third reason is the normalization of the CME basis. In 2021, the futures premium exceeded 8%, reflecting market euphoria and “overheated expectations.”
Currently, this figure is stable in the 2%–4% range, indicating market maturity and a high level of arbitrage activity. Institutional traders are leveling the playing field, transforming the market into a stable ecosystem with transparent pricing. According to experts, the combined data points to a structural shift in the cryptocurrency market's growth mechanism. Unlike previous cycles, the current upswing is based not on speculation, but on genuine demand from major investors.
Source: cryptonews.net
