Bitcoin Price Forecast: Analysts Expect a $125,000 Rebound as Sovereign Wealth Funds Buy During the Decline

• Bitcoin is trading around $111,500, recovering from a sudden drop, with $110,000 and the 200-day EMA acting as key support.
• Network data shows an influx of $180 million as the EU's sovereign wealth fund made its first purchase of Bitcoin.
• Analysts see potential for recovery if BTC breaks the $116,000 mark to $117,000, which would open the way to $120,000–$125,000.

Bitcoin is hovering around $111,500 today, recovering slightly from one of the sharpest two-day declines this quarter. The rebound comes as buyers defend the $110,000 area, supported by the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $107,900, while institutional inflows point to renewed accumulation following the panic selloff.

Bitcoin price finds support at the base of the trend line

BTC Technical Analysis (Source: TradingView)

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is bouncing off technical support levels near $110,000. This area includes an ascending trendline drawn from the July lows, a 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $107,905, and a horizontal base that has repeatedly served as a launchpad for previous rallies.

Short-term resistance formed at $113,500, where the 100-day exponential moving average aligns with the midline of the previous ascending channel. Above this level, the 20-day exponential moving average at $116,790 and the 50-day exponential moving average at $115,565 form a tight resistance cluster that could determine whether the bulls can regain momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 40.7, recovering from oversold territory following last week's sudden collapse. The price has begun to stabilize, indicating possible exhaustion of the selling market. A clear rise above $113,500 could confirm the beginning of a technical rebound to the $116,800–$120,000 range.

Supply chain data points to institutional buying on the downside

BTC Netflows (Source: Coinglass)

After two days of nearly $1.6 billion in outflows, on-chain data recorded a sharp inflow of $180.6 million on October 12, signaling a potential shift in sentiment. This surge in inflows coincided with Bitcoin stabilizing above $111,000, suggesting that institutional and ETF-linked buyers are returning to absorb the supply.

🚨 JUST IN: Bitwise ETF Reports an EU Sovereign Wealth Fund Just Made Its First Bitcoin Purchase… 😱⚡️

GLOBAL WEALTH IS STACKING THE DIP!!! 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/9xZGBin2OS

— Luke Mikic🇦🇺 The 9-5 Escape Artist🇦🇺 (@LukeMikic21) October 11, 2025

The shift in flows followed a report from Bitwise ETF, which revealed that the EU's sovereign wealth fund made its first-ever purchase of Bitcoin, signaling a restoration of confidence in digital assets globally. Analysts see this as a turning point, as traditional financial institutions begin to recover from the decline amid market weakness.

Despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals appear to be intact. Open interest in futures has normalized after the drop caused by last week's liquidation, and funding rates have returned to neutral levels, creating a more favorable environment for a sustained recovery.

Saylor's $180,000 call highlights volatility

MICHAEL SAYLOR SAYS, “#BITCOIN WILL SURGE TO $180,000, CRASH TO $140,000, AND PEOPLE WILL FREAK OUT AGAIN.”

HODL BITCOIN ✊ pic.twitter.com/7KinJBHSf9

— Vivek Sen (@Vivek4real_) October 11, 2025

MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor, contributing to the market debate, reiterated his bullish long-term stance on CNBC, declaring, “Bitcoin will jump to $180,000, crash to $140,000, and then people will panic again.” This comment reflects both confidence in Bitcoin's multi-cyclical growth and an acknowledgment of its recurring volatility.

Saylor's company recently expanded its holdings by purchasing another 15,400 BTC at an average price of $96,000, bolstering institutional investor confidence even amid short-term volatility. Analysts believe this significant accumulation strengthens market support levels near $100,000 and reinforces Bitcoin's macroeconomic uptrend.

The technical picture suggests a mid-cycle reset

The broader structure shows Bitcoin retesting its multi-month trendline while remaining within a broader ascending channel. The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $107,900 acts as the primary defensive zone, while any move below it could trigger a more severe decline to $105,000. Conversely, a daily close above the 50-day EMA at $115,565 would signal a recovery and attract momentum buyers targeting $120,000 and $125,000.

The current market equilibrium suggests consolidation before the next breakout. As the RSI gradually recovers and blockchain inflows become positive, buyers appear to be regaining control after capitulation.

Bitcoin Price Technical Forecast

Outlook: Will Bitcoin Rise in Price?

Bitcoin's short-term trajectory depends on whether buyers can recoup the EMA cluster between $115,000 and $117,000. The resumption of institutional investment inflows and the first entry of a sovereign wealth fund signal rising confidence, while the RSI recovery confirms a potential rebound phase.

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic as long as Bitcoin holds above the $107,900 support level. A confirmed break above $116,800 could reopen the door to $120,000–$125,000, while a failure to hold above $110,000 could reopen $105,000 as the next downside target.

Bitcoin currently appears to be experiencing a healthy mid-cycle reset, with global capital quietly buying up the dip while the broader uptrend remains intact.

Source: cryptonews.net