Bitcoin October forecasts are mixed: Analysts debate “Rektober” and “Uptober.”

• Bitcoin's historic gains in October suggest potential for a strong Uptober rally.
• The whale sell-off and slowdown in institutional activity point to short-term market fragility.
• Technical strength suggests buying conditions on the decline, supporting the move to new highs.

Since the beginning of October, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between two trends. Seasonal optimism, known as Uptober, is based on historical momentum and technical strength.

On the other hand, concerns about the hidden fragility and behavior of whales warn of the inevitability of a reset. The next few weeks could decide whether October becomes another Uptober or a dreaded Rectober.

1. The Case for the Bulls: Seasonality and Technical Momentum

CryptoCapo noted that September marked a transitional period for Bitcoin and the markets as a whole. He warned that the apparent calm masks widespread fragility.

According to him, the market appears set to shed excess before rebounding, making a reset likely in the short term. He emphasized that investors need to seek the truth rather than cling to optimistic forecasts, even if the outlook is bleak.

On the topic : Bitcoin hashrate reaches a record 1.2 ZH/s, BTC prepares to break through the $114,000 mark.

Historical trends favor an upward trend

On the contrary, CryptosRus emphasized Bitcoin's strong seasonal dynamics, noting that October has brought growth in 10 of the last 12 years. Notable rallies include a nearly 60% increase in 2013 and a nearly 48% increase in 2017.

Given that September ended in moderately positive territory, he views current conditions as a favorable starting point. While he acknowledged that macroeconomic shocks could disrupt established trends, he leaned toward an optimistic October, bolstered by Bitcoin's resilience during this period of uncertainty.

BITCOIN'S UPTOBER STARTS THIS WEEK

Since 2013, #Bitcoin has closed October green in 10 of 12 years. Historic rallies include:

2013: +60.79%
2017: +47.81%
2021: +39.93%
2023: +28.52%

September 2025 sits at +1.91% so far — not a blowoff, not a collapse. A clean takeoff pad (with… https://t.co/Tkb0d6xjgZ pic.twitter.com/IKdxKZL9Zc

— CryptosRus (@CryptosR_Us) September 28, 2025

2. The Bear Case: Whales, Weakness, and Hidden Risk

SalsaTekila shed some light on the nuances, noting that whales sold over 130,000 BTC in August and September. Meanwhile, large institutional buyers, such as Michael Saylor's company, have slowed their activity.

Institutional capital, which fueled many previous rallies, now appears less active. The slowdown in large-scale buying activity increases the risk that October will see a recovery rather than a rally.

He believes this anomaly could set the stage for a rise to $180,000 in the coming months, with short-term support holding near $112,000.

BTC Update:

— Old whales sold over 130,000 BTC in August/September.
— Saylor and TCOs slowed buying.
— September is typically bearish.

Despite reasons to drop, BTC is up in September. October and November may push it to $180,000.

Short-term support around $112,000. pic.twitter.com/Oi5FpXsQrJ

— SalsaTekila (@SalsaTekila) September 30, 2025

3. A balanced view: October could be decisive

Source: X

Michael van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin broke through a key resistance level at $111,900, becoming support when the price reached $114,755. He noted that while a short-term pullback to $113,000 is possible, the overall situation looks favorable. He believes that buying conditions prevail on the downside, and potential for growth to new all-time highs is possible in October if support zones remain intact.

On Topic : Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Holds at $111K, Traders Expect Liquidation at $115K

Source: cryptonews.net