A test of Bitcoin's 8-year trendline at $117,250 could determine the future course of action.
- The 8-year trend line has marked all major peaks and corrections in Bitcoin since 2017.
- Past failures on this line have resulted in sharp pullbacks, while breakouts have led to record highs.
- The current test is $117,250, a level Soloway calls critical to confirm a breakout.
Chief market strategist Gareth Soloway has drawn an eight-year trendline that has tracked every major Bitcoin high and correction since 2017. This line also covered the 2017 peak, both 2021 highs, and the rally of late 2024 and early 2025; each deviation from the trend resulted in a decline of more than 30%.
Whenever Bitcoin has broken and held above this line, it has subsequently reached new all-time highs. This line currently stands near $117,250.
Why $117,250 Matters
According to Soloway, Bitcoin needs to break above $117,250 and hold there for at least a couple of daily closes to confirm a breakout. If that happens, he believes historical data points to the likelihood of another all-time high.
But if Bitcoin fails at this level, the risk of a downside move will increase. Soloway warned that a pullback could initially push the price below $100,000, and then possibly to $89,000–$90,000, based on long-term support lines.
Source: Gareth Soloway
He emphasized that while institutional participation in today's market is higher than in 2017 or 2021, making sharp declines less likely, significant corrections are still possible if Bitcoin fails to break through this critical level.
The 8-Year Line That Has Guided Every BTC Cycle
This same line played a role in:
- The 2017 top and the subsequent bear market.
- Both 2021 highs led to another correction.
- The rally of late 2024 and early 2025, when Bitcoin pulled back more than 30% after reaching resistance.
Source: Gareth Soloway
When Bitcoin broke higher and held at that level, it continued to set new records. When it fell, larger corrections followed.
Understanding the Future of BTC
CoinEdition has reviewed three major BTC price predictions, all of which converge on a similar reversal zone.
Gareth Soloway observed an eight-year trend line near $117,250. However, Bitcoin is also in the “banana zone” of its cycle, where prices typically rise steadily and pullbacks are less pronounced. Support levels in the $113,500–$114,900 range indicate a continuation of the bullish trend.
On the topic: Bitcoin's “Banana Zone” points to a growth peak in early October – November 2025
Fibonacci target levels suggest Bitcoin could reach $155,600 if it breaks above $117,250. Strong accumulation and low selling pressure reinforce the positive sentiment.
But if Bitcoin fails to hold at this level, it could fall to $90,000, showing that corrections are still possible even in this cycle.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $116,915 and has fallen more than 1% over the past 14 hours.
Why this trend is important now
Soloway admitted that he didn't pay attention to this line a few months ago when Bitcoin briefly surpassed it. But after the latest price action, he believes it has once again proven its relevance.
Whenever Bitcoin remained above this line, it reached new all-time highs, while falling below it often led to sharp pullbacks. This test, he added, could determine whether the market will enter a new major rally or face a sharp correction. “That's why this test could be the turning point between a new all-time rally and a major correction,” he said.
Related: Bitcoin Cash (BCH) hits 17-month high, BTC breaks strong resistance near $118,000
Source: cryptonews.net
