Why This Bitcoin Rise Feels Different Than Previous Ones
- Bitcoin Cycle Lengthens as Institutions and ETFs Drive More Sustainable Long-Term Growth
- Spot Confidence Weakens, But $105K-$107K Support Underpins Bitcoin's Resilience
- Historical retest patterns suggest a potential vertical breakout to the $130,000 level.
The Bitcoin market is sending out a complex set of signals, keeping traders on edge as a healthy long-term cycle clashes with signs of immediate spot market weakness.
While blockchain data suggests the bull market is only gaining momentum, buyer confidence in the spot market is waning. The deciding factor now is the historical chart, which is currently retesting a critical support level.
Why does this bull market feel slower?
According to CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin's current cycle is lengthening. Unlike the rapid price surges of the past, this phase has a more gradual slope, driven by the influence of institutional adoption, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and even government interest.
Additionally, whenever capital moves towards altcoins, Bitcoin's upward trajectory is briefly paused, a trend that has been repeated in recent months.
Crypto Market Cycle Slows, Uptrend Expected in Fall 2025
“Looking at the percentage of Bitcoin held for over a year (based on realized market cap), past cycles (Phase 1 and 2) show that the market surged sharply and reached its peak.
However, in the current phase (3), the slope… pic.twitter.com/jTL139wa8c
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) August 29, 2025
What are the short term warning signs?
Glassnode reports that the Bitcoin spot market has reversed its trends. In April, buyer dominance led to strong rallies, but today the total volume delta on major exchanges has become neutral. This change indicates that buyer confidence is waning in the spot market near $111,000.
Related: Bitcoin Price Stuck at $113K as Traders Prepare for Options Expiry at End of Month
Thus, without an influx of new funds, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to short-term weakness. However, key support in the $105,000-$107,000 range provides a solid foundation. Resistance remains firm at $115,000-$118,000. Sustained accumulation above $110,000 is considered critical to regain momentum.
Glassnode: Spot market bias has reset. Bitcoin's CVD across major venues has reverted to neutral, contrasting with strong April buyer dominance. This suggests a waning conviction among spot participants near $111k. pic.twitter.com/xXxyINoOwu
— NekoZ (@NekozTek) August 29, 2025
What bullish pattern are traders watching?
Merlijn The Trader highlighted that Bitcoin has tended to follow a repeating pattern throughout this bullish cycle: bounce, breakout, retest, and sharp continuation. The $110,000 level is currently being retested.
Source: X
If so, the historical pattern suggests that the next move could be vertical, reaching levels above $130,000. Moreover, the consistency of this behavior over past cycles bolsters the confidence of traders who buy during retests.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast: Bulls Defend $110K, But ETF Outflows Put Pressure Ahead of Q4
Source: cryptonews.net
