Anthony Pompliano Predicts Bitcoin Rally in September, Fueled by Oversold Signals, Q4 Trends
- Anthony Pompliano says Bitcoin is oversold and is expected to rally in September.
- The historical strength of the fourth quarter and speculation of a Fed rate cut support the optimistic outlook.
- The analyst predicted a major rally, but ruled out the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $1 million this cycle.
Anthony Pompliano predicted that Bitcoin will start to rally in September. Speaking on CNBC on Thursday, he pointed to Bitcoin being oversold and historical trends that suggest stronger gains in the fall.
Pompliano emphasized that September and October are linked to the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, suggesting that this combination creates favorable conditions for price growth. He noted that market participants return from the summer holidays and become more active in September, which contributes to increased buying activity.
Historical seasonal trends support optimistic outlook
Bitcoin's historical performance shows that Q3 was the weakest since 2013, with an average return of just 6.02%, while Q4 was the strongest, with an average gain of 85.42%, according to Coinglass. Pompliano argues that this trend is creating self-fulfilling expectations as investors brace for the expected rally in Q4.
Source: Coin Glass
The strategist believes that the expectation of a repeat of historical trends is driving preemptive buying, with market participants anticipating strong results in the fourth quarter starting to add to their positions at the end of the third quarter.
Bitcoin recently hit a new all-time high of $124,128 on August 14, just over a week ago, before falling back to current levels. This recent peak technically supports Pompliano’s thesis that oversold conditions are creating buying opportunities.
Rate Cut Catalysts and Institutional Demand
Speculation around the Federal Reserve's rate cut on September 17 could add further impetus to Bitcoin's expected rally. Pompliano emphasized that low interest rates are generally beneficial for risky assets like cryptocurrencies, reducing the opportunity cost of holding on to unprofitable investments.
Treasuries raising additional funds to buy bitcoin could boost institutional demand during the seasonal uptick. Such corporate buying programs often provide sustained price support beyond retail trading.
Pompliano was skeptical of Bitcoin’s $1 million price target this cycle, despite his bullish September forecast, but insisted it will eventually reach that mark. According to Pompliano, the ideal conditions for Bitcoin’s next big rally are created by a combination of technical oversold conditions, renewed market activity, and historic seasonal growth. However, his muted long-term expectations suggest that the current cycle’s gains may be more modest than some forecasts suggest.
Related: How Just a 1% Change in Pension Funds Could Send Bitcoin to $175K
Source: cryptonews.net
