What will happen to the price of Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is in a fragile position, holding at around $90,000. According to experts interviewed by The Block, the current situation is driven by three key factors: a sell-off by retail investors, significant outflows from cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and growing demand for downside hedges. Analysts characterize the current structure as a short-term decline that has not disrupted the global growth cycle, writes RBC Crypto.
After peaking at around $126,200 in early October, Bitcoin's price has fallen by approximately 27% to $91,500, according to Binance data on November 19. Since the beginning of the month, the price has fallen by 17%.
The market is uneven, according to BRN Research: strong selling by short-term investors is countering the methodical accumulation of assets by major players. Analysts have tracked the transfer of at least 31,000 bitcoins to exchanges by short-term holders, likely for sale. At the same time, the number of large holders—new wallets with 1,000 bitcoins or more, accumulating coins—is growing at its fastest rate in four months.
However, BRN's findings contrast with the observations of other experts, who note that long-term investors and large players are exerting the most significant pressure on the price.
The investor rotation noted by BRN is occurring amid near-record capital outflows from ETFs. For example, according to Sosovalue data for the less than a month ending November 18, the total outflow from the group of funds has already reached $3 billion. This compares to the record monthly figure of nearly $3.6 billion in February 2025.
Since demand from such ETFs has provided the crypto market with a significant influx of capital and become a driver of its growth in 2024 and 2025, negative data is perceived by analysts as an important indicator of market sentiment.
Cryptocurrency-based spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide investors with access to crypto assets through the NASDAQ and NYSE exchanges in the form of shares. The issuance of new shares requires the funds to purchase cryptocurrencies.
The situation is exacerbated by macroeconomic uncertainty heading into the end of the year. “Any new macroeconomic surprise could quickly reverse positions and trigger extreme cryptocurrency volatility,” says Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN.
Other analysts share similar views, pointing to delays in macroeconomic data due to the government shutdown in the US and rising tariff inflation.
Separately, there is a growing interest in hedging instruments such as Bitcoin options with a year-end target below $90,000, with interest being shown at the $80,000 level.
“The macroeconomic backdrop simply doesn't give traders any reason to remain bullish for the rest of the year,” said Derive.xyz head of research Sean Dawson.
Exchange rate forecasts
Despite a correction of more than 27% from the peak, 21Shares analysts believe the underlying structure of the market's growth remains intact, with pressure from long-term investors easing.
The key resistance level remains the $98,000 to $100,000 zone, and the main support is $85,000. If this level is broken, the next major demand zone is between $75,000 and $80,000.
“We've entered a bearish scenario, but the cycle structure remains intact. If liquidity normalizes and Bitcoin returns to $100,000, the uptrend could resume,” 21Shares analysts wrote.
Other analysts also share the view that the November decline is not part of the start of a protracted bear market. These include Chris Kuiper, deputy director of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, Mike Novogratz, head of investment firm Galaxy, and Ki Young-Joo, head of research at Cryptoquant. Bernstein brokerage firm experts expressed a similar opinion.
Источник: cryptocurrency.tech
