Bitcoin has hit a new six-month low. What's next for the price?
The price of Bitcoin has fallen to its January 1st level, erasing all gains since the start of the year. Experts have assessed the possibility of a recovery in the coming weeks.
RBC-Crypto does not provide investment advice; this material is published for informational purposes only. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that can lead to financial losses.
On November 14, Bitcoin's price fell below $95,000 for the first time since May, representing a decline of more than 8% from the previous day's peak. This coincided with a general decline in the crypto market, whose market capitalization fell below $3.2 trillion. Almost all of the top 100 crypto assets lost up to 20% in value during this period, according to Coinmarketcap.
BTC/USD
96,387 -6,103 (-5.95%) OKH Nov 14 17:39:53 1d 3d 1m 3m 1g 5l rbc.group
As of 4:20 PM Moscow time on November 14, Bitcoin was trading around $94,800. Since the beginning of November, the price has lost more than 13%, and from its peak of $126,200 in early October, the decline has been 25%. However, the price is still 25% above this year's low.
The Bitcoin price decline occurred amid a global correction in global markets. Following the trading session on November 13, the prices of the major US indices, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, fell by 1.6% and 2%, respectively. Gold prices fell almost 1.5%.
Against this backdrop, on November 13, a group of US-based Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a combined net outflow of $870 million, according to Sosovalue. This is the second-largest daily outflow since the launch of such funds in early 2024.
When investors exit, fund managers (such as BlackRock or Fidelity) are required to buy back some of the ETF shares and sell an equivalent amount of the bitcoin that backs them. Thus, net outflows from the funds lead to selling in the market and can increase pressure on the price.
Experts interviewed by RBC-Crypto assessed the decline in cryptocurrencies as a result of pressure from macroeconomic expectations, which are negatively impacting the blockchain sector.
“Nothing critical”
The main reason for the crypto market's decline is growing investor concerns in traditional markets. Tehnobit CEO Alexander Peresichan believes that technology stocks, particularly those in artificial intelligence, have come under pressure, as investors have begun taking profits, believing current multiples are excessively high.
“Against this backdrop, cryptocurrencies, traditionally considered risky assets, followed the IT sector's trend and declined. This reaction has been observed before: during periods when investors are risk-averse, the cryptocurrency market often moves in unison with tech stocks due to the high degree of correlation,” the expert writes.
An additional factor was growing concerns that the US Federal Reserve might not cut interest rates in December as previously expected.
“Nothing critical has happened. Yes, inflationary pressure from tariffs is preventing the Fed from taking action right now, but overall, price dynamics have been moving in the right direction for several months. Therefore, even if the December rate move doesn't take place, the market will almost certainly see a decline in the first half of 2026,” said Roman Nekrasov, an IT consultant specializing in digital technologies.
The rise in so-called tariff inflation, Peresichan explained, associated with increased import duties, potentially leads to higher prices and forces the regulator to be more cautious.
Exchange rate expectations for December
The negative trend in the Bitcoin price by mid-November failed to dampen positive expectations for December. Nekrasov believes a typical “Santa Claus rally” is entirely possible, with investors beginning to buy back losses and priced in expectations for future monetary easing.
“Especially if the Fed's rhetoric softens even a little, and inflation data doesn't present any surprises,” the expert clarified.
If demand for exchange-traded funds remains high and the macroeconomic backdrop is favorable, Nekrasov expects the crypto market to recover: “We can expect Bitcoin to return to the $112,000-$118,000 range by the end of 2025 and rise to $130,000-$140,000 in the first half of 2026.”
Other analysts also believe that the November decline is not part of the start of a protracted bear market. These include Chris Kuiper, Deputy Director of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets; Mike Novogratz, Head of Investment Firm Galaxy; and Ki Young-Joo, Head of Analytics at Cryptoquant.
Source: cryptonews.net
