Here's Why Bitcoin (BTC) Price Can't Rise, According to This Analyst
- Bitcoin's rally is facing resistance as long-term holders (LTH) have sold 810,000 BTC since July 1.
- Network analyst Axel Adler Jr. notes that profit-taking is limiting BTC's upward momentum.
- Despite the sell-off, strong market demand absorbed supply, allowing BTC to reach two new highs.
Bitcoin's recent rally has encountered significant resistance. According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., this price cap is due to profit-taking by long-term holders (LTH).
Adler noted that LTH has been actively sold since July 1st. The total distribution volume by this group reached 810,000 BTC. Over the same period, their total assets decreased from 15.5 million to 14.6 million BTC.
Eventually, the distribution will end, a price discount will emerge, and we'll see a new phase of LTH accumulation.
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) October 31, 2025
Despite the prolonged selloff, Bitcoin managed to reach new all-time highs twice. Adler notes that this proves that strong market demand successfully offset most of the selling pressure.
However, he warned that as long as LTH continues to generate profits, Bitcoin's growth will be limited. “Eventually, the distribution will end, a price discount will appear, and we will see a new phase of LTH accumulation,” Adler added.
Related: Bitcoin exchange outflows grow as former White House adviser says sellers will regret it
This is why LTH distribution is a normal market cycle
Historically, Bitcoin's major growth periods coincide with periods when LTH transitions from distribution to accumulation. The recent sell-off highlights a typical phase of the market cycle. During this phase, profit-taking temporarily halts price growth.
After this wave of distribution cools, a new accumulation phase often creates a solid foundation for the next major rally.
Source: Axel Adler Jr. on X
A chart provided by Adler shows that LTH supply has declined sharply since July, while price volatility remains subdued. This suggests that demand from institutional buyers, ETFs, and new retail players continues to offset selling pressure.
BTC Price Analysis: Consolidation Amid LTH Supply
Bitcoin is currently consolidating near a strong support range in the $107,000-$105,000 region as seen on the daily chart, trading slightly above $109,900, with resistance forming near the descending trendline in the $111,000-$115,000 region.
A break of this range could open the way to the $120,000-$123,000 mark, while a failure to hold above support could trigger a retest of the $102,000 mark.
Source: TradingView
The MACD remains slightly negative, signaling weakening bullish momentum, while the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is around -0.08, indicating moderate outflows. However, the Balance of Power (BoP) is at 0.75, indicating buyers still have the advantage in the short term.
On the other hand, Bollinger Bands are showing narrowing volatility, hinting that Bitcoin may be preparing for a decisive move in the near future.
Related: SpaceX Transfers $268 Million in Bitcoin as BTC Holds Above Key Support
Source: cryptonews.net
