Harvard economist's Bitcoin forecast: “What did I miss?”
- Kenneth Rogoff, renowned Harvard economist and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has commented on his 2018 Bitcoin forecast.
- At the time, he stated in a CNBC interview that Bitcoin was “more likely to reach $100 than $100,000.”
- Seven years later, Bitcoin is even significantly higher. The current all-time high is just under $124,500.
- In an X-post, Rogoff now writes: “What did I miss?” He cites the lack of crypto regulation in the US and Bitcoin’s role in the “global shadow market” as reasons for his misjudgment at the time.
Almost a decade ago I was the Harvard economist that said that bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 than 100k. What did I miss? I was far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensitive cryptocurrency regulation; why would policymakers want to facilitate tax…
— Kenneth S Rogoff (@krogoff) August 19, 2025
- Reactions from the crypto industry were quick to arrive. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that Rogoff couldn't have imagined “that a decentralized project that draws its power from people rather than centralized institutions could succeed at scale.”
- Crypto analyst David Lawant commented that Rogoff's book The Curse of Cash was “so bad” that it “turned him on to Bitcoin.”
- Incidentally, the Harvard Foundation itself has been investing in Bitcoin for some time and recently disclosed an investment of around 116 million US dollars in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF.
- This shows that even economists from elite institutions, no matter how renowned they may be, are not always correct in their assessments.
- Read here how you can apply the endowment strategies of top US universities to your own portfolio: Elite universities are now investing in these assets.
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Sources
- Matt Hougan on X
- David Lawant on X
