Bitcoin ETFs Lose Over $800M in April as Institutions Flip Bonds Amid Rate Volatility
US-listed BTC exchange-traded funds appear to be preparing for the second-largest monthly outflow on record.
Author: Omkar Godbole | Edited by: Oliver Knight Updated: Apr 15, 2025 1:48 pm Published: Apr 15, 2025 10:13 am
What is important to know:
- Despite calls on social media to buy Bitcoin, institutions are not following the trend, as evidenced by the significant outflow of funds from US-listed spot BTC ETFs.
- U.S. Treasury bills continue to enjoy strong demand from institutions, underscoring their status as a safe haven asset in times of economic uncertainty.
- The increasing likelihood of a US recession and trade tensions have led to increased market volatility, impacting corporate earnings forecasts and risk asset performance.
“Sell bonds, buy bitcoin,” a prominent social media account proclaimed last week, reflecting the sentiment of many cryptocurrency supporters who believe that the volatility caused by rate changes in the U.S. Treasury bond market — the cornerstone of the global economy — has exposed the vulnerability of the dollar-based monetary system. However, institutions do not share this view.
As of Monday, 11 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, considered a proxy for institutional activity, were on track to post the second-largest monthly outflow of more than $800 million, according to SoSoValue. The funds suffered record losses of $3.56 billion in February and $767 million in March.
Meanwhile, three-month Treasury bills auctioned on Monday attracted strong institutional interest. The Treasury sold $80 billion of three-month bills at 4.225%, up from the previous 4.175%, according to CME data. It also sold $68 billion of six-month bills at a slightly higher 4.06%.
However, the bid-to-cover ratio, which measures the number of bids received versus the number accepted, for three-month bills rose from 2.82 to 2.96. In other words, there were almost three times as many bids for every three-month bill offered. The ratio for six-month bills increased slightly from 2.79 to 2.90.
Strong demand indicates that institutions continue to view U.S. debt as a safe haven. Treasury bills are highly liquid and considered low-risk, making them a preferred collateral option in the repurchase agreement (repo) market. In a repo transaction, one party sells Treasury bills or other securities to another party with an obligation to repurchase them at a later date, allowing the seller to access short-term funding.
Institutions typically invest in Treasuries when the economic outlook is unclear, requiring flexibility in their investments rather than long-term commitments.
President Donald Trump’s full-scale trade war against China and other major trading partners has heightened uncertainty to the point that there’s a risk of sudden changes in corporate earnings forecasts on Wall Street. BofA’s three-month forward multiple — which tracks the number of companies beating and missing consensus estimates — has fallen to 0.4x, the lowest since April 2020 and below its historical average, according to Inc.
Источник
