The situation on the cryptocurrency market remains uncertain. Many analysts are trying to at least roughly predict where Bitcoin (BTC) will go.
Crypto expert Crypto Stream on X (formerly Twitter) has identified four possible paths that the crypto market could take depending on various factors.
Scenario 1: No catalyst and slow decline
After such significant events as the announcement of the US crypto reserve, the market may face a lack of new powerful catalysts for growth. Without this, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will gradually decline.
According to Crypto Stream, the decline could last anywhere from one to eight weeks, until another event occurs that could trigger a rally in the crypto market. Key signs of this scenario include:
- a decline in capital inflows into cryptocurrency-based spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs);
- weakening of open positions;
- reduction of liquidity.
Scenario 2: Surge in Interest and Short-Term Growth
In this scenario, the US crypto reserve will still have an impact on the crypto market, but only in the short term. Interest in Bitcoin from traditional financial players will revive, which will push the BTC price up.
The following factors may lead to this scenario:
- surge in ETF inflows;
- Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announcement of the issue of further shares for the purchase of Bitcoin;
- stock market growth.
Scenario 3: Acceptance Theory
Even if the US crypto reserve does not immediately trigger capital flows, it could be a powerful signal for wider adoption of Bitcoin. Following the example of America, banks, insurance companies and entire countries will start adding BTC to their balance sheets, which will contribute to the growth of the crypto market.
The time frame for this scenario is three months or more. The key features, according to Crypto Stream, are as follows:
- adding Bitcoin to institutional portfolios;
- Investments in BTC from pension and sovereign wealth funds.
Scenario 4: Growth through liquidity
Some analysts believe that the main driver of Bitcoin price is liquidity, measured by the money supply (M2). In recent months, the M2 metric has shown growth. BTC traditionally follows changes in liquidity with a lag of about 20 days.
If M2 continues to increase, the price of Bitcoin will begin to rise along with it in the coming weeks.
According to CoinMarketCap, at the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency by capitalization is trading at $80,742. Over the past 24 hours, the asset's rate has fallen by almost 1.5%, reaching its lowest levels since November 2024.
Источник: cryptocurrency.tech
