The level of correlation between the price of bitcoin and indices tracking quotes of large American companies — NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 — has reached its maximum values this year. This is due to the fact that bitcoin is considered a risky asset that is subject to volatility in conditions of macroeconomic uncertainty, writes RBC Crypto.
“There are a lot of long-term drivers for crypto growth, especially with a crypto-friendly administration. But the problem is that crypto is still a high-risk asset where much of its pricing is based on sentiment rather than rationality. And it’s hard to have faith in crypto when there’s so much fear in the global market,” Roxanna Islam, head of industry and sector research at TMX VettaFi, told Bloomberg, commenting on the crypto market’s March 10 plunge.
On the night of March 11, the price of Bitcoin fell below $78 thousand, which became the minimum since mid-November 2024. The price of Ethereum fell to $1.75 thousand, the minimum since October 2023, according to the Binance exchange. By March 11, 15:00 Moscow time, the quotes had recovered slightly – Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading at $81.6 thousand and $1.91 thousand, respectively.
Risky assets are any assets that do not have a fixed return in national currencies. Traditionally, these include shares of companies openly traded on stock exchanges. Risk-free assets include trading instruments with a fixed return, for example, in US dollars. In the classical sense, risk-free assets include government bonds with interest income.
Bitcoin's correlation with the US indices tracking the stock prices of the largest companies – the SP 500 and NASDAQ 100 – continues to be at 0.75 and 0.80 respectively, which are the highest values since the beginning of 2025. A correlation value of 1 means the maximum coincidence of quote movements, and a value of minus 1 (-1) means that asset prices are moving in opposite directions.
At the same time, Bitcoin, like other risky assets, has lost its correlation with gold. As experts from the management company Bitwise wrote, in 2024, Bitcoin was a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty, but since the beginning of the year, gold's returns have outpaced Bitcoin and many other asset classes.
Against gold
Since early February, gold's correlation with Bitcoin has fallen from 0.73 to -0.51, according to IntoTheBlock as of March 11. And gold's price action over the same period has risen 3.5% versus Bitcoin's 20% decline, according to Tradingview.
UBS investment bank analyst Mark Haefel said that “gold’s enduring appeal as a store of value and a hedge against uncertainty has once again proven its worth,” according to Coindesk, while Citi analysts pointed out that “trade wars and geopolitical tensions are accelerating the trend toward reserve diversification, which is supporting gold demand.”
Traditionally, gold is considered a safe haven asset in times of economic uncertainty and financial market crises. In 2025, demand for gold as a safe haven asset increased after US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China in early February. Although Bitcoin is commonly referred to as “digital gold,” the price movement suggests that the main cryptocurrency is moving as a risk asset.
The world's largest management company BlackRock also admits that Bitcoin is a risky asset, but with some reservations. BlackRock analysts highlight limited emission, the global digital nature of the asset, and decentralization as fundamental factors that distinguish the main cryptocurrency from other similar assets, including traditional ones.
BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager. Among its products is a Bitcoin-based exchange-traded fund (ETF), the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, which manages nearly $57 billion as of February 11, 2025. The company's CEO, Larry Fink, calls Bitcoin “digital gold” and admits that he was mistaken for five years when he was skeptical of Bitcoin, but he studied the issue and is now an outspoken supporter.
Additional pressure
Since the beginning of March, experts have increasingly noted the risks of a recession in the United States. For example, on March 10, the American stock market fell after US President Donald Trump refused to rule out the risks of a recession, which the politician said in an interview with Fox News on Sunday, March 9.
Trump said the U.S. economy is “in transition” as import tariffs take effect. Asked if he expects a U.S. recession in 2025, Trump said: “I hate to make that prediction. It’s a transition because what we’re doing is important. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s important.” He added that it will be a while before Americans see the results of his policies.
“The post-election rally in the market has turned into a nasty hangover as the political realities of Trump 2.0 begin to dawn,” Bloomberg quotes Benny Adler, head of equity capital markets at Goldman Sachs, as saying.
Bearish sentiment is now in full swing, fueled by Trump's comments suggesting that a market downturn may be necessary to improve the U.S. position, hedge fund QCP said in a research note.
“In crypto, Bitcoin once again acted as a pressure valve and key leading indicator for risk assets, briefly falling below $80,000,” QCP wrote.
QCP experts added that as prices for risky assets fell, so did yields on risk-free assets, including 10-year US government bonds. This has historically been a positive factor for risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Источник: cryptocurrency.tech
