Forecast: Imminent Resolution to U.S. Government Closure; Health Sector Feud Persists
Prediction Markets Suggest U.S. Government Impasse Nearing Conclusion as Health Care Battle Beckons
Polymarket participants foresee a 96% likelihood of the record-setting impasse ceasing by mid-November, as the Senate approves an agreement and pressure escalates on House Republicans to take action.
By Sam Reynolds, AI Boost|Edited by Omkar Godbole Nov 11, 2025, 7:19 a.m.
What to know:
- The U.S. government impasse is anticipated to conclude shortly, with forecasting platforms exhibiting strong conviction in a resolution by mid-November.
- A Senate ballot propelled a financing measure to restart the government, but left unsettled matters such as Affordable Care Act appropriations.
- Political strains persist as both factions encounter potential censure for the impasse preceding next year's midterm elections.
The unprecedented U.S. government impasse seems to be in its concluding phase, with prediction platforms demonstrating significant assurance that an accord will pass Congress in a matter of days.
On Polymarket, market participants now give a 96% likelihood that the government resumes operations between November 12 and 15, corresponding with the anticipated House vote on the Senate’s collaborative financing legislation.
Similarly, on Kalshi, agreements connected to the period of the impasse have experienced comparable drive, with participants pricing in an end within the coming 72 hours as confidence increased following the Senate’s 60–40 vote to finance the government until January 30.
The surge in prospects followed a conclusive alteration in Washington during the weekend.
Seven Senate Democrats deviated to collaborate with Republicans in advancing a measure that reverses extensive federal dismissals, reinstates retroactive wages and food assistance, and maintains federal departments operational but leaves a single politically volatile matter unresolved: the expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) appropriations, which aid in reducing monthly insurance expenditures for millions.
December vote on subsidies
Even some of Trump’s associates are resisting. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene accused party decision-makers of “having no strategy” to tackle potential doubling of expenses if appropriations lapse, while a grouping of vulnerable House Republicans has entreated Speaker Mike Johnson to move before year’s conclusion. Johnson has yet to commit to a ballot on ACA aid, although he pledged to conduct “a thoughtful process” after the government restarts.
A December Senate vote on the appropriations is part of the shutdown agreement, but ratification remains questionable.
If prediction platforms are accurate, the government might restart by Nov. 14, contingent on the House passing the financing measure and Trump endorsing it. But as Kalshi and Polymarket participants secure gains at the close of the impasse, both factions are still wagering on a considerably more challenging inquiry: who shoulders the responsibility for it.
Midterm betting
Furthermore, if the consequences of next year’s midterm votes are the blame assignment, prediction platforms are previously tallying.
On Polymarket, participants grant Republicans a 44% prospect of retaining the Senate while relinquishing the House, a split outcome that implies voters might penalize both factions for Washington’s disorder.
Prospects of a Democratic rout and a Republican rout are leveled at roughly 27% individually, indicating neither side has succeeded in transforming the impasse into political leverage.
