Polymarket and UMA community clash after $7 million bet dispute involving Ukraine
Posted by Shaurya Malwa | Edited by: Parikshit Mishra Updated: March 27, 2025 12:02 UTC Published: March 27, 2025 12:01 UTC
A controversial $7 million bet on prediction platform Polymarket has sparked controversy between the Polymarket and UMA communities.
The likelihood of a positive decision on a bet involving Ukraine agreeing to a mining deal with US President Donald Trump by April rose from 9% to 100% between March 24 and 25, despite the lack of a formal agreement.
Polymarket uses UMA, an optimistic oracle system, to determine the outcomes of its prediction markets.
In this system, anyone can propose a solution by staking a USDC.e bond worth $750, which can then be contested. If a dispute arises, UMA token holders vote to resolve the issue.
In this case, the bet was voted “yes”, raising suspicions of manipulation by a “UMA whale” – a holder of a significant number of UMA tokens who could influence the vote.
Polymarket responded via its Discord server, acknowledging that the decision was unexpected but rejecting claims that it was a “market failure” requiring a refund.
The response explained that the market issue was resolved too early as the deal between Ukraine and the US had not yet been confirmed, but they supported the UMA voting process to correct the outcome.
Polymarket has since reached out to its community for suggestions to prevent future issues, promising clearer rules and upcoming updates, though it has yet to detail specific changes.
Read More: Polymarket Under Fire for UMA Management After Scammer Reveals Top 5 Token Stakers
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