DXY Index’s Fourth Biggest Weekly Drop Since 2013 Signals BTC Bottom

Dollar Index’s Fourth-Biggest Weekly Drop in Decade Points to Possible Bitcoin Bottom

James Van Straten | Edited by Parikshit Mishra Updated Mar 7, 2025 14:10 UTC Published Mar 7, 2025 1:17 UTC

The DXY index suffered one of its sharpest weekly declines since 2013. The index measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of other major currencies.

According to Bloomberg data from Global Macro Investor, the index’s weekly percentage decline exceeded a negative value of four standard deviations – a rare event that has happened only three times in Bitcoin (BTC) history.

These previous events include November 2022, when Bitcoin hit its cycle low of $15,500 during the FTX crash; March 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, when Bitcoin briefly dipped below $5,000; and the 2015 bear market, when Bitcoin traded around $250. Each time the DXY index has shown a decline of more than -4 standard deviations, it has coincided with a Bitcoin low, followed by a significant price rally.

Moreover, CoinDesk research highlights that the DXY is currently declining at a faster pace than it did during Trump’s first term in office, a period that coincided with Bitcoin’s 2017 bull run. A decline in the DXY is typically favorable for risk assets, but a DXY above 100 is still considered strong, currently at 103.8.

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Source: CurrencyRate

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