New Bull Run or Bear Market Rally? Only Time Will Tell
Author: Omkar Godbole | Edited by: Sheldon Reback Updated: April 10, 2025, 5:07 PM Published: April 10, 2025, 9:16 AM
Don’t be fooled by the dramatic turnaround in the market on Wednesday, when the S&P 500 stock index posted its biggest gain since 2008 and there was also a big rise in Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market, as reflected by the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20).
The rally sparked by President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day tariff suspension has fueled optimism on social media about a supposedly long bull run in both stocks and cryptocurrencies. But that may be over-optimism, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs and others, as multi-week double-digit stock price rallies are fairly common even during severe bear markets.
“In most bear markets, given the light positioning, even small changes in these variables can have a magnified impact on markets. Bear market rallies are therefore fairly common,” Goldman’s strategy team led by Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a note on Tuesday titled “Bear Market Anatomy – The Path and Shape of a Bear Market.”
Since the 1980s, there have been 19 bearish rally periods in the global market, and on average “they lasted 44 days, and the MSCI AC World Index recorded a yield of 10-15%,” the note says.
“One of the most severe bear markets in history saw about half a dozen major double-digit rallies before it all came to an end,” commented Callum Thomas, founder of
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