The crypto market is fundamentally strong. But who's constantly selling Bitcoin?

Experts have said that the main sellers of Bitcoin from 2024 onwards will be long-term holders.

RBC-Crypto does not provide investment advice; this material is published for informational purposes only. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that can lead to financial losses.

Bitcoin's performance since the start of 2025 has been the worst among major global assets, including gold, silver, and major US corporate indices. This is despite the rise of government and corporate adoption of Bitcoin in various parts of the world, particularly in the US. Experts attribute Bitcoin's performance to the behavior of long-term investors, who are methodically selling or redistributing Bitcoin in their portfolios.

Bitcoin (BTC) prices have gained only 4% since the start of the year, trading at around $97,160 as of 1:45 PM Moscow time on November 14. Over the same period, gold has risen by approximately 60%, the major US corporate indices SP 500 and NASDAQ 100 have risen by 15% and 19%, respectively, and silver has fallen by more than 80%. Bitcoin has fallen more than 22% from its all-time peak in October.

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Since the beginning of November, the trend has been similar. Bitcoin has lost more than 11%, the SP 500 and NASDAQ 100 have fallen 1.5% and 3%, while gold and silver have risen 4% and 8%, respectively.

BTC/USD

96,500 -6,610 (-6.41%) OKH Nov 14 14:19:35 1d 3d 1m 3m 1d 5l

In November, several key market players simultaneously reported increased pressure from large, long-term investors on the price of the leading cryptocurrency. These claims are supported by data showing record Bitcoin movements by “old” holders. According to the analytics firm Cryptoquant, this group has sold approximately 815,000 Bitcoins ($82 billion) over the past 30 days.

The rate of such movements is the highest since January 2024, Cryptoquant writes, adding that “Bitcoin holders continue to sell, locking in profits, which has increased pressure on the price.”

“Who's selling? That's the main question I'm being asked about the ongoing pressure on Bitcoin's price. I'm not the first to suggest that the sellers are long-term holders,” noted Chris Kuiper, associate director of research at Fidelity Digital Assets.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz also believes that long-term holders are reconsidering their portfolios, diversifying large positions in the asset after the prolonged bull market of recent years.

Bitcoin price forecasts

Despite the negative dynamics of recent months and selling pressure, experts are hesitant to call a bearish cycle, believing that price growth could still resume. For example, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young-Joo believes that the bearish cycle hasn't yet begun until Bitcoin's $94,000 price level is broken. According to his calculations, this price is the average price for investors who bought Bitcoin 6-12 months ago.

Novogratz asserts that “we haven't yet seen the peak of this cycle,” citing expectations of a new US Federal Reserve chairman arriving by the end of the year, who is expected to make changes to monetary policy. It's expected that with his arrival, the regulator will foster a better investment climate, which will also have a positive impact on the crypto market: “Hopefully, this will be enough to trigger the next wave of growth.”

At the same time, Novogratz's Galaxy lowered its year-end Bitcoin price target from $185,000 to $120,000.

Kuiper also has a positive outlook on the future, noting that “Bitcoin's strong fundamentals and lackluster price action continue to diverge.” He also noted that long-term investors have been selling gradually in this cycle, with no sudden surges in price reaching new highs.

The local bottom of Bitcoin's (BTC) current growth cycle is in November 2022, below $16,000. Statistically, this bullish cycle is currently no different in duration from the previous two (2014 to 2017 and 2018 to 2021). Back then, the period from the local minimum to the maximum was 35-36 months. The current cycle, if the high recorded in October 2025 (over $126,000) holds, will also last 35 months.

Large sales

The result is a contradictory picture, with long-term investors redistributing record amounts of Bitcoin “in the face of positive fundamentals.”

According to analyst James Check, known as Checkmate, cited by Coindesk, the total volume of old coins that have been dormant for more than six months amounted to more than 4.6 million BTC (more than $460 billion) in 2025.

Galaxy data is also cited, showing that 470,000 BTC (approximately $50 billion) were transferred in 2025 after being immobilized for more than five years, the second-largest amount ever recorded for this category (only 2024 saw a larger amount). In total, experts estimate that more than $104 billion in Bitcoin has passed from “old hands to new” since the beginning of 2024.

In recent weeks, experts have increasingly stated that major market participants are indeed taking profits and no longer buying the asset. Bloomberg noted that since the all-time high in October, “old” holders have sold $45 billion worth of Bitcoin.

Blockchain analysts are also recording large cryptocurrency transfers to exchanges from major players, likely indicating preparations for a sale. For example, one of the wealthiest Bitcoin owners, Owen Gunden, has begun transferring tens of millions of dollars' worth of his coins to the Kraken exchange.

However, all these sales or transfers are only part of the overall picture, where there are many market and other factors that shape the price and movement of capital.

Not everyone is selling Bitcoin

Transferring “old coins” isn't always a literal sale. For example, Adam Back, one of Bitcoin's early developers and the head of Blocksream, transferred 30,000 BTC (over $3 billion) to the authorized capital of BSTR Holdings in exchange for a stake in a company accumulating the cryptocurrency as a reserve.

The mass launch of such companies in various countries occurred in late 2024 and early 2025. Replenishing the reserves of such companies does not necessarily mean purchasing Bitcoin from the market, where investors can transfer coins directly in exchange for shares or other incentives.

It's likely that some of the “old” coins were moved in this way, which is reflected in the statistics. According to Bitcointreasuries, the total number of such companies exceeds 200, and the amount of Bitcoin on their balance sheets exceeds $107 billion.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may be another option for large holders to transfer Bitcoin without selling it. Thanks to a mechanism approved this summer, investors can now exchange BTC directly for ETF shares without selling or incurring taxes. According to Bloomberg, as of late October, the volume of such transfers in BlackRock ETFs alone exceeded $3 billion.

Source: cryptonews.net