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Geoff Kendrick, the head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, announced on Friday that the cryptocurrency market has likely reached its cycle low. He indicated that Bitcoin’s recent decline to approximately $59,000 represents the nadir of the current slump, a depreciation of 53% from its peak of $126,000 recorded in October.
“Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto spring,” Kendrick stated in a Friday advisory, adding, “I believe we have now experienced the lowest point in crypto asset valuations for this cycle.”
At the time of Kendrick’s remarks, Bitcoin had rebounded to around $64,000, marking an approximate 5% increase over the preceding week. The financial institution maintains its year-end price forecast for Bitcoin at $100,000, a projection initially put forth in February.
SpaceX IPO drains crypto liquidity — then frees it
One of the two main factors Kendrick identified is the highly anticipated Nasdaq debut of Elon Musk’s SpaceX. The company priced its $75 billion initial public offering at $135 per share, trading under the symbol SPCX, on June 12.
Following its debut, shares surged significantly above their IPO price, achieving approximately a 20% gain on the first day of trading. Kendrick posited that a substantial volume of recent outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, totaling over $5.72 billion since the second week of May—among the most significant since their inception—was influenced by investors liquidating their crypto holdings to secure SpaceX shares. He suggested that with the IPO now active, this particular selling pressure might abate.
The convergence of interest between cryptocurrency and SpaceX demand was already evident. Prior to the launch, perpetual contracts for SpaceX (SPCX) had amassed over $240 million in open interest and $220 million in 24-hour trading volume on Hyperliquid, positioning it as the eighth-largest asset on the platform.
Iran is a wildcard
The second contributing factor relates to geopolitical developments. A potential resolution of diplomatic ties between the U.S. and Iran, anticipated before the upcoming G7 summit, could ease the strain on global oil supplies, which have been constrained since the onset of hostilities in the Middle East.
A subsequent decrease in oil prices would, in turn, moderate the elevated yields on U.S. Treasuries. These higher yields have negatively impacted riskier assets like cryptocurrencies by making secure government debt more appealing.
On Friday, West Texas Intermediate crude experienced a decline of approximately 1.5%, settling around $85–$86 per barrel. Nevertheless, the narrative surrounding a peace deal remained precarious.
President Trump commented on Thursday that a breakthrough might occur this weekend, only to later post on Truth Social that the publicly announced deal did not align with the agreed-upon terms, urging Iranian officials to “get their act together”—thereby introducing ambiguity into the broader economic outlook.
Three bitcoin price signals to watch
Kendrick identified three key indicators that would serve to corroborate his assessment. Firstly, he is observing for an announcement from MicroStrategy regarding an additional Bitcoin acquisition on Monday. The purchasing patterns of CEO Michael Saylor have historically served as a reliable indicator of institutional interest.
Secondly, he anticipates that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs will resume experiencing net positive daily inflows on Friday.
Thirdly, he wishes to observe a continued reduction in global oil prices as the diplomatic situation involving Iran progresses.
Should all three of these conditions be met, Kendrick’s “crypto spring” hypothesis would receive its most compelling validation to date, suggesting that institutional and macroeconomic factors are finally aligning to propel Bitcoin towards the bank’s year-end target of $100,000.
Based on materials from : bitcoinmagazine.com