Situational Awareness LP, the $13.7 billion tech fund helmed by the prodigious Leopold Aschenbrenner, has recently unveiled its first-quarter 2026 13F filing. This disclosure offers a compelling glimpse into the strategic moves of a fund renowned for its deep dives into the AI sector, revealing a significant shift with massive short positions against chipmakers and a simultaneous expansion of bullish bets in compute and memory stocks.
Key Takeaways
- Massive Chipmaker Shorts: The fund has established an impressive $8.46 billion in notional put exposure against a broad spectrum of semiconductor companies.
- Targeted Bets: Significant short positions include $2 billion against the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and $1.6 billion against Nvidia (NVDA).
- Selective Longs: Bullish strategies are focused on areas like memory (Sandisk, Micron, TSMC calls) and data center infrastructure (CleanSpark, Riot Platforms, Applied Digital, IREN).
- High-Profile Long: Bloom Energy remains a top conviction long, with substantial stock and call option holdings.
- Late Filing: The 13F filing was submitted past the regulatory deadline, potentially exposing the fund to SEC penalties.
Alpha-Hunter’s Insight
This 13F filing from Situational Awareness LP is a masterclass in contrarian positioning, particularly Aschenbrenner’s bold $8.46 billion bet against the semiconductor industry. While the narrative has largely focused on these enormous short positions targeting giants like Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, and TSMC, it’s crucial to recognize the equally significant, albeit less publicized, bullish plays. The fund isn’t just betting against chipmakers; it’s strategically reallocating capital into what it perceives as the next wave of growth. The expanded calls in memory stocks like Sandisk, and continued investment in crypto miners and data center operators like CleanSpark and Riot Platforms, signal a clear thesis: capitalizing on the infrastructure and foundational elements of the AI revolution, even as the hardware component faces a potential downturn.
The inclusion of calls on Micron and TSMC, despite the larger short thesis on the sector, suggests a nuanced approach. This isn’t a blanket bearish call; it’s a play on volatility within the chip sector itself, aiming to profit from significant price swings. For alpha hunters, this presents a dual opportunity: understanding the potential downside risks Aschenbrenner sees in chipmakers, while identifying the specific compute, memory, and infrastructure plays he believes will outperform. Bloom Energy’s continued prominence as a top long also warrants attention, indicating a conviction in alternative energy solutions powering the future tech landscape.
Potential Value Analysis
While Aschenbrenner’s fund is a behemoth at $13.7 billion, the specific bets offer insights into potential high-growth areas. The large notional values of the short positions, particularly on the SMH ETF and Nvidia, indicate Aschenbrenner’s conviction in a significant correction or stagnation in semiconductor stock prices. Conversely, the increased positions in CleanSpark, Riot Platforms, Applied Digital, and IREN signal a strong belief in the operational capacity and future profitability of these data center and crypto mining companies, which are essential for the underlying infrastructure supporting AI computation. The addition of call options on Sandisk, Micron, and Taiwan Semiconductor further refines this strategy, suggesting a belief that specific segments within memory and semiconductor manufacturing could still offer substantial returns through options trading, especially if volatility increases as anticipated.
The diversification of these long bets across different facets of the tech ecosystem – from energy solutions with Bloom Energy to the foundational compute power provided by data centers – highlights a strategy aimed at capturing value across the entire AI value chain. For investors looking to follow Aschenbrenner’s lead, the focus should be on the specific catalysts driving these long positions and the potential for significant upside in companies providing the essential services and infrastructure for the AI era, even if the hardware manufacturers face headwinds.
Leopold’s Situational Awareness 13F is out and he may have just called the top. He’s now running 2 books: Book one: short the entire AI chip stack. Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, TSMC, ASML, Micron, Oracle, Intel, Corning, plus the SMH ETF as a wrapper. $8.5B in fresh put notional…
Original article : www.bankless.com