Predicting Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, and XRP Price Movements Related to Fed Actions
Author: Omkar Godbole | Edited by: Parikshit Mishra Updated: May 7, 2025, 5:54 AM Published: May 7, 2025, 4:51 AM
It’s Fed meeting day again, and traders are looking for clues about how much volatility the big event could bring. According to Volmex Implied Volatility Indexes, major tokens could see price swings, but nothing out of the ordinary is predicted.
According to TradingView, at the time of writing, Bitcoin’s annualized Volmex 1-day Volatility Index (BVIV) was 49%, which translates to an expected 24-hour price swing of 2.56%.
In other words, Bitcoin (BTC) can move $2,470 in either direction. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $96,500.
The expected daily volatility in percentage terms is calculated by dividing the annual percentage by the square root of 365, since the digital asset market operates 24 hours a day. In traditional markets, the conversion from annual to daily implies using the square root of 252 days.
At the time of writing, Ether (ETH) has an annualized one-day volatility of 66%, implying a 24-hour price move of 3.45%. Similarly, the Volmex One-Day Implied Volatility Index suggests a 24-hour move of 4.3% for Solana’s SOL.
Volmex does not publish volatility indices related to the payment-oriented cryptocurrency XRP. However, the expected movement of the token can be estimated from the forward implied volatility (IV) derived from options listed on Deribit.
According to Amberdata, the forward IV as of May 8 was 77.98% at the time of writing. This equates to a one-day expected move of 4.08%.
The Federal Reserve releases its interest rate decision at 18:00 UTC, followed by a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell at 18:30 UTC.
The central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged, but comments on the economic outlook amid the trade war and the possibility of a rate cut in June could weigh on markets.
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