Forecast market traders are betting big on a landslide Liberal victory as Canadians prepare for election
Sam Reynolds | Edited by Aoyon Ashraf Updated April 28, 2025, 8:58 PM Published April 28, 2025, 1:34 AM
Political bettors on Polymarket and other platforms are focusing on Canada ahead of the country’s upcoming elections.
With the country’s 45th election, a contract allowing players to guess who will be Canada’s next prime minister gives the Liberal Party’s Mark Carney a 78% chance and the Conservative Party’s Pierre Poilievre a 22%.
Political betting sites are showing some skepticism about Carney’s chances of winning compared to the polls, but both estimates are heading in the same direction. Public broadcaster CBC’s polling aggregator puts Carney’s chances at 89%.
Myriad Markets, another forecasting platform, provides Carney with the same odds as Polymarket.
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